- Backlog of at least 300,000 tests but probably a lot more
- 25-50% of the population, mostly young people have C19 (loss of taste/smell) but our case definition doesn’t include those people
- Insufficient testing that doesn’t count people who have the virus.
So, a quick back of the envelope calculation (this is just one way; you can play with some of the numbers and do your own).225,000 + (300,000 x 0.25) + 225,000 x 1.5 + 225,000 x 1.3 = 930,000This number won’t obviously affect number of hospital admissions and deaths but you can use it to recalculate mortality rates, critically ill rates, etc. Fig 3 shows where we go from here.
I’m sending this to my most trusted friends and clients because the USA is very close to a tipping point beyond which it really doesn’t matter what you do, the result will be very bad.
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